Contagion Forecast Overall Cases

Overall Daily Cases

For source, please see the documentation section.

Legend:

  • Green solid line: Historical data.
  • Green dotted line: Projection.
  • Blue dotted line: Upper bound for the projection.
  • Yellow dotted line: Lower Bound for the projection.

Print Share
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For more details on how to interpret this indicator please refer to the OxCGRT Coding Interpretation Guide: https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/interpretation_guide.md

The data for “Policy” portion of this model comes from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), which systematically collects information on several different common policy responses that governments have taken to respond to the pandemic.

Data published by Thomas Hale, Noam Angrist, Rafael Goldszmidt, Beatriz Kira, Anna Petherick, Toby Phillips, Samuel Webster, Emily Cameron-Blake, Laura Hallas, Saptarshi Majumdar, and Helen Tatlow. (2021). “A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker).” Nature Human Behaviour. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01079-8
Link https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/oxford-covid-19-government-response-tracker

Note:
This is an ongoing collation project of live data. If you see any inaccuracies in the underlying data please email us and/or contact the organization itself via the feedback form available on the COVID-19 Government Response Tracker’s website.

Policies

Current Weakest Strongest Custom

Containment and closure policies

Record closings of schools and universities
0 - No measures 1 - Recommend closing or all schools open with alterations resulting in significant differences compared to non-Covid-19 operations 2 - Require closing (only some levels or categories, eg just high school, or just public schools) 3 - Require closing all levels
Record closings of workplaces
0 - No measures 1 - Recommend closing (or recommend work from home) or all businesses open with alterations resulting in significant differences compared to non-Covid-19 operation 2 - Require closing (or work from home) for some sectors or categories of workers 3 - Require closing (or work from home) for all-but-essential workplaces (eg grocery stores, doctors)
Record cancelling public events
0 - No measures 1 - Recommend cancelling 2 - Require cancelling
Record limits on gatherings
0 - No restrictions 1 - Restrictions on very large gatherings (the limit is above 1000 people) 2 - Restrictions on gatherings between 101-1000 people 3 - Restrictions on gatherings between 11-100 people 4 - Restrictions on gatherings of 10 people or less
Record closing of public transport
0 - No measures 1 - Recommend closing (or significantly reduce volume/route/means of transport available) 2 - Require closing (or prohibit most citizens from using it)
Record orders to "shelter-in-place" and otherwise confine to the home
0 - No measures 1 - Recommend not leaving house 2 - Require not leaving house with exceptions for daily exercise, grocery shopping, and 'essential' trips 3 - Require not leaving house with minimal exceptions (eg allowed to leave once a week, or only one person can leave at a time, etc)
Record restrictions on internal movement between cities/regions
0 - No measures 1 - Recommend not to travel between regions/cities 2 - Internal movement restrictions in place
Record restrictions on international travel

Note: this records policy for foreign travellers, not citizens

0 - No restrictions 1 - Screening arrivals 2 - Quarantine arrivals from some or all regions 3 - Ban arrivals from some regions 4 - Ban on all regions or total border closure

Economic policies

Record if the government is providing direct cash payments to people who lose their jobs or cannot work.

Note: only includes payments to firms if explicitly linked to payroll/salaries

0 - No income support 1 - Government is replacing less than 50% of lost salary (or if a flat sum, it is less than 50% median salary) 2 - Government is replacing 50% or more of lost salary (or if a flat sum, it is greater than 50% median salary)
Record if the government is freezing financial obligations for households (eg stopping loan repayments, preventing services like water from stopping, or banning evictions)
0 - No debt/contract relief 1 - Narrow relief, specific to one kind of contract 2 - Broad debt/contract relief

Health system policies

Record presence of public info campaigns.
0 - No Covid-19 public information campaign 1 - Public officials urging caution about Covid-19 2 - Coordinated public information campaign (eg across traditional and social media)
Record government policy on who has access to testing.

Note: This records policies about testing for current infection (PCR tests) not testing for immunity (antibody test).

0 - No testing policy 1 - Only those who both (a) have symptoms AND (b) meet specific criteria (eg key workers, admitted to hospital, came into contact with a known case, returned from overseas)
 2 - Testing of anyone showing Covid-19 symptoms 3 - Open public testing (eg "drive through" testing available to asymptomatic people)
Record government policy on contact tracing after a positive diagnosis.
0 - No contact tracing 1 - Limited contact tracing - not done for all cases 2 - Comprehensive contact tracing - done for all cases
Record policies on the use of facial coverings outside the home.
0 - No policy 1 - Recommended 2 - Required in some specified shared/public spaces outside the home with other people present, or some situations when social distancing not possible 3 - Required in all shared/public spaces outside the home with other people present or all situations when social distancing not possible 4 - Required outside the home at all times regardless of location or presence of other people
Record policies for vaccine delivery for different groups.
0 - No availability 1 - Availability for ONE of following: key workers/ clinically vulnerable groups (non elderly) / elderly groups 2 - Availability for TWO of following: key workers/ clinically vulnerable groups (non elderly) / elderly groupsAvailability for TWO of following: key workers/ clinically vulnerable groups (non elderly) / elderly groups 3 - Availability for ALL of following: key workers/ clinically vulnerable groups (non elderly) / elderly groups 4 - Availability for all three plus partial additional availability (select broad groups/ages) 5 - Universal availability
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